In the fast-paced hospitality industry, where customer demand fluctuates and costs can quickly spiral out of control, accurate weekly forecasting is essential. By aligning expected sales with staffing costs, weekly forecasting ensures venues like pubs, bars, restaurants, and function centers remain profitable and prepared. More importantly, it keeps your team focused on the short-term future and helps you plan for a profit. Here’s why this practice is critical and how it can transform your venue’s operations.
1. Align Wages with Expected Sales
Weekly forecasting enables venues to proactively manage wages based on expected revenue.
- Staffing: Match rosters to expected customer numbers, avoiding overstaffing on quiet days and understaffing during peak periods.
- Quiet Period Adjustments: Shorten or cut shifts to keep wage percentages in line when sales are projected to be low.
- Peak Period Preparation: For busy trading days or events, schedule additional staff to maintain service quality while keeping overtime under control.
Aligning wages with sales forecasts helps venues manage labor costs effectively without sacrificing the customer experience.
2. Improve Decision-Making in Real-Time
Weekly forecasts provide actionable data that helps managers and chefs make informed decisions.
- Adjusting Rosters: If sales projections change midweek, shifts can be adjusted to prevent overspending on wages.
- Maximizing Revenue Opportunities: During quieter weeks, identify opportunities to drive additional sales through targeted promotions or events.
- Planning for Profit: By staying focused on the short-term future, weekly forecasting helps venues avoid surprises and ensures every decision supports profitability goals.
3. Drive Accountability Among Teams
Forecasting isn’t just about numbers—it’s about accountability. Weekly forecasting ensures:
- Clear Targets: Managers, chefs, and event coordinators have specific revenue and wage percentage benchmarks to aim for each week.
- Performance Tracking: Actual results can be compared to forecasts, highlighting areas for improvement.
- Actionable Feedback: Weekly coaching sessions can focus on discrepancies between forecasts and results, holding teams accountable for performance.
4. Prevent Wage Overspending
Without accurate forecasts, venues and function centers often fall into the trap of overspending on wages.
- Overstaffing: Scheduling too many employees for quiet trading days inflates wage percentages unnecessarily.
- Underspending During Peak Times: Conversely, failing to roster enough staff during busy periods can lead to poor service and missed revenue opportunities.
Weekly forecasting ensures labor costs are optimized for the expected level of sales, helping venues avoid these common pitfalls.
5. Support Long-Term Profitability
While forecasting is a short-term tool, its impact extends to long-term success.
- Improved Profit Margins: By keeping wage percentages aligned with weekly revenue, venues can achieve consistent profitability over time.
- Better Financial Planning: Weekly forecasts feed into monthly and yearly budgets, creating a more accurate picture of financial health.
- Strategic Decision-Making: Trends identified through weekly forecasting can guide larger decisions, such as adjusting pricing or service models.
Weekly forecasting bridges the gap between daily operations and long-term financial goals.
6. A Practical Example of Weekly Forecasting in Action
For a Bar or Restaurant
Consider a bar preparing for an upcoming event weekend:
- Forecast: Sales are projected to increase by 25% compared to a typical weekend.
- Actions Taken:
- Additional staff are rostered to cover peak trading times, ensuring service levels remain high.
- Shifts are strategically scheduled to minimize overtime while meeting demand.
- Result: The bar is well-prepared for the surge in demand, maximizing sales while maintaining wage efficiency.
For a Function Center
A function center has three large bookings in a single week: a wedding, a corporate seminar, and a birthday party.
- Forecast: Revenue from events is expected to be 50% higher than the average week.
- Actions Taken:
- Staff schedules are aligned with the size and complexity of each event, ensuring efficiency.
- Additional support staff are brought in for high-demand events, avoiding service delays.
- Result: The function center optimizes staffing costs while delivering a seamless experience for clients.
7. Foster a Culture of Proactive Management
Weekly forecasting shifts the mindset from reactive to proactive management. Rather than scrambling to fix issues after they arise, managers, chefs, and event coordinators can anticipate challenges and address them before they impact operations.
It also ensures teams are always focused on the short-term future, planning for profit with every decision. This culture of preparation and accountability drives continuous improvement and operational success.
Weekly Forecasting as a Critical Tool
In hospitality, success lies in preparation. Weekly forecasting provides the data and insights needed to align wages with revenue, improve decision-making, and drive accountability. Whether it’s a busy bar, a thriving restaurant, or a bustling function center, weekly forecasting ensures your team is prepared for the challenges and opportunities ahead.
By staying focused on the short-term future and using weekly forecasts to plan for profit, venues can stay ahead of market fluctuations, reduce unnecessary labor costs, and ensure consistent profitability across all types of operations.
